This is the downloadable financial model for Micron Technology (MU), covering core assumptions, financial forecasts, valuation and scenario pricing. The table below is a snapshot of the model results; the full editable version (with live formulas, adjust assumptions for sensitivity analysis) is available for download here:
⬇ Download MU Financial Model (.xlsx)
The multiples, growth rates, WACC, and target prices in the table are modeled / estimated figures; the company does not disclose them separately. The model is for analytical framework and cross-validation only and does not constitute investment advice.
01Assumptions
Micron Technology (MU) — Model Assumptions (Blue = adjustable; yellow highlight = key) Data as of FQ3 FY2026 (2026-05-28) / Stock Price 2026-07-01; USD; Fiscal Year Sep-Aug; Strong Cyclical Valuation Basis
Scenario Assumptions (Normalized EPS × Cycle P/E)
| Scenario | FY27E EPS($) | Cycle PE | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 90 | 15 | 0.3 |
| Base | 68 | 14 | 0.4 |
| Bear | 40 | 12.5 | 0.3 |
Note: Memory is a strong cyclical; valuation should anchor on normalized / mid-cycle earnings, not peak EPS; EPS/PE/probability are estimated.
02Quarterly Trends
Quarterly Trends — Last 12 Fiscal Quarters (Actual Reported, $B; Fiscal Year Sep-Aug; Full Cycle Arc) Source: MU 10-Q/8-K (standardized via stockanalysis/Fiscal.ai). Actual reported values, not model.
| FQ4'23 | FQ1'24 | FQ2'24 | FQ3'24 | FQ4'24 | FQ1'25 | FQ2'25 | FQ3'25 | FQ4'25 | FQ1'26 | FQ2'26 | FQ3'26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 23.9 | 41.5 | |
| -0.3964 | 0.1569 | 0.577 | 0.8153 | 0.9327 | 0.8428 | 0.3827 | 0.3656 | 0.46 | 0.5665 | 1.963 | 3.457 | |
| -0.1085 | -0.0074 | 0.1853 | 0.269 | 0.3532 | 0.3844 | 0.3679 | 0.3772 | 0.4467 | 0.5604 | 0.7441 | 0.8456 | |
| -1.5 | -1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 16.1 | 33.3 | |
| -0.3671 | -0.2387 | 0.0328 | 0.1056 | 0.1964 | 0.2496 | 0.2202 | 0.2332 | 0.3229 | 0.4498 | 0.6762 | 0.8037 | |
| -1.4 | -1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 5.2 | 13.8 | 28.2 | |
| -1.31 | -1.12 | 0.71 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 1.67 | 1.41 | 1.68 | 2.83 | 4.6 | 12.07 | 24.67 |
Full cycle arc: 2023 trough (GM −11%, operating loss) → 2026 extreme peak (FQ3'26 GM 84.6%, operating margin 80.4%). ⚠ FQ3'26 single-quarter revenue of $41.5B exceeds full FY2024 total ($25B); 84.6% GM far above memory historical peak (~55–60%) — AI-HBM super-cycle extreme peak (HBM sold out through 2026 + Anthropic long-term contract-driven). Do not extrapolate linearly; cycle reversal risk is very high.
03Cycle Model
Cycle Model (Current Year / Next Year / Year After Next = FY26E/27E/28E; $B) — Peak Then Normalization Blue = input; black = formula. FY24–25A are actual sums of four fiscal quarters; FY26E includes Q4 guidance (~$50B); Fiscal Year Sep-Aug.
| FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 37 | 129 | 140 | 100 | |
| 0.48 | 2.486 | 0.08527 | -0.2857 | ||
| 1.3 | 9.8 | 96 | 90 | 45 | |
| 0.052 | 0.2649 | 0.7442 | 0.6429 | 0.45 | |
| 0.8 | 8.5 | 81 | 68 | 35 | |
| 0.6987 | 7.424 | 70.74 | 59.39 | 30.57 |
⚠ FY26E is the extreme peak year (EPS ≈ $71); FY27E assumes high consolidation; FY28E normalized decline. Do not value using FY26 peak EPS × PE (would give absurdly high target); the scenario table uses FY27E normalized EPS.
04Scenario Pricing
Scenario Pricing (Normalized EPS × Cycle P/E Method) Target Price = FY27E EPS × Cycle P/E; Weighted = Σ(Target Price × Probability).
| Scenario | EPS($) | PE | Target Price($) | vs. Current | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 90 | 15 | 1,350 | 0.2688 | 0.3 |
| Base | 68 | 14 | 952 | -0.1053 | 0.4 |
| Bear | 40 | 12.5 | 500 | -0.5301 | 0.3 |
| Probability-Weighted Target Price | 935.8 | -0.1205 |
Note: Cycle peak + low PE is a trap; upside depends on HBM structural re-rating (margin floor rising); downside depends on severe mean reversion.
专注投资分析、市场洞察与资产配置。不追短期波动,只理解真正驱动长期回报的东西。
