Palantir (PLTR) Financial Model: Assumptions, Forecasts & DCF Valuation

2026.06.244 min✦原创

公司拆解MINTOVIEW2026.06.24

This is the downloadable financial model for Palantir (PLTR), covering core assumptions, financial forecasts, valuation, and scenario pricing. The table below is a snapshot of the model's output; the full editable version (with live formulas, allowing you to adjust assumptions and run sensitivity analyses) can be downloaded here:

⬇ Download PLTR Financial Model (.xlsx)

The multiples, growth rates, WACC, target prices, etc. in the table are modeled/inferred figures; the company does not disclose them separately. This model is only an analytical framework and cross-validation tool, not investment advice.

01Assumptions

Palantir (PLTR) — Model Assumptions (Blue = adjustable inputs; Yellow background = key assumptions) Data as of Q1 2026 (2026-03-31) / Share price 2026-06-29; Units $M, shares M, price $/share Valuation Basis

Current Price ($/share)118

Diluted Shares (M)2,571

Cash + Short-term Treasuries ($M)8,000

Debt ($M)0

Net Cash ($M)8,000

FY2026 Revenue Midpoint ($M)7,656

FY2026 Adj. FCF Midpoint ($M)4,300

Scenario Assumptions (EV / 2028E Sales Multiple)

2028E Rev ($M)	EV/2028E Sales	Probability
15,000	32	0.25
15,000	20	0.45
15,000	11.5	0.3

Bull · $M

Note: Multiples, 2028E revenue, and probabilities are modeled/inferred; company does not disclose.

02Annual Model

Annual P&L & Cash Flow Model (Modeled; 2025A = actual/guidance implied) Blue = input; black = formula. FY26 uses guidance midpoint, thereafter modeled.

2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E
4,477	7,656	11,100	15,000	19,000	23,000
	0.7101	0.4498	0.3514	0.2667	0.2105
0.44	0.6	0.61	0.61	0.61	0.61
1,970	4,594	6,771	9,150	11,590	14,030
0.42	0.562	0.56	0.57	0.57	0.58
1,880	4,303	6,216	8,550	10,830	13,340

Revenue · $M

03DCF

DCF (FCF Method · Terminal FCF Multiple · Modeled) PLTR has real positive free cash flow, so DCF is more meaningful here than for most peers. Blue = input; black = formula. WACC Decomposition

Risk-Free Rate Rf0.043

Beta1.3

Equity Risk Premium ERP0.05

Cost of Equity Ke0.108

WACC (nearly all equity)0.108

Exit FCF Multiple28

Perpetuity Growth g (alternative)0.04

2026E	2027E	2028E	2029E	2030E	2031E	2032E
1	2	3	4	5	6	7
4,300	5,600	7,100	8,800	10,600	12,250	13,750
0.9025	0.8146	0.7352	0.6635	0.5988	0.5405	0.4878
3,881	4,562	5,220	5,839	6,348	6,621	6,707

Discount Period t · $M

Total PV(FCF)39,176

Terminal Value TV = FCF₂₀₃₂ × Exit Multiple385,000

PV(TV)187,794

Enterprise Value EV226,970

+ Net Cash8,000

Equity Value234,970

Diluted Shares (M)2,571

Value Per Share ($)91.39

Note: Exit FCF multiple method; Gordon perpetuity (g=4%) would be more conservative. DCF is only for cross-validation.

Sensitivity: Value Per Share ($) = f(WACC, Exit FCF Multiple)

24	28	32
82.34	92.97	103.6
77.85	87.83	97.82
73.66	83.04	92.42

0.105 · $M

04Scenario Pricing

Relative Valuation Scenario Pricing (EV / 2028E Sales) Target Price = (2028E Rev × Multiple + Net Cash) / Diluted Shares; Weighted = Σ(Target Price × Probability).