This is the downloadable financial model for Nebius (NBIS), covering core assumptions, financial projections, valuation, and scenario pricing. The table below is a snapshot of the model output; the full editable version (with live formulas for you to adjust assumptions and run sensitivity analysis) is available here:
⬇ Download NBIS Financial Model (.xlsx)
Multiples, growth rates, WACC, target prices, etc., are model-based / estimated and not disclosed by the company. This model is solely an analytical framework and cross-check — not investment advice.
01Assumptions
Nebius (NBIS) — Model Assumptions (blue = adjustable input; yellow background = key assumption) Data as of Q1 2026 (2026-03-31) / Share price 2026-06-12; Units: $M, shares M, price $/share Valuation Basis
Scenario Assumptions (Exit ARR × EV/Forward ARR Multiple)
| Scenario | 2026 Exit ARR ($M) | EV/Forward ARR | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 9,000 | 10 | 30% |
| Base | 8,000 | 8 | 50% |
| Bear | 6,500 | 5.4 | 20% |
Note: Multiples, exit ARR, and probabilities above are estimated/model-based and not disclosed by the company.
02Quarterly Model
Core Cloud Quarterly P&L Model (model-based; Q1'26 is actual) Blue = inputs (QoQ growth, margin assumptions); Black = formulas. Source: Q1'26 actual from 6-K, rest model.
| Q1'26 | Q2'26 | Q3'26 | Q4'26 | Q1'27 | Q2'27 | Q3'27 | Q4'27 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 390 | 561.6 | 763.8 | 1,008 | 1,311 | 1,665 | 2,064 | 2,518 | |
| 44% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 27% | 24% | 22% | ||
| 74% | 73% | 73% | 73% | 72% | 72% | 72% | 72% | |
| 288.6 | 410 | 557.6 | 736 | 943.7 | 1,198 | 1,486 | 1,813 | |
| 45% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 48% | |
| 175.5 | 252.7 | 351.3 | 473.8 | 602.9 | 782.3 | 990.7 | 1,209 |
Key milestone: Under this model, core cloud quarterly revenue crosses ~$1,000M/quarter around Q4 2026.
03DCF
DCF (illustrative) — Exit EV/EBITDA Terminal Value Method (model-based) Blue = inputs; Black = formulas. UFCF negative for first 3 years; valuation highly dependent on terminal value and execution, wide range, cross-check only. WACC Decomposition
| 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E | 2031E | 2032E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 3,200 | 6,500 | 11,000 | 15,500 | 19,500 | 23,000 | 26,000 | |
| -12% | 6% | 16% | 24% | 28% | 30% | 31% | |
| -384 | 390 | 1,760 | 3,720 | 5,460 | 6,900 | 8,060 | |
| 10,500 | 7,800 | 6,500 | 5,500 | 5,200 | 5,400 | 5,800 | |
| 22,500 | 16,000 | 10,000 | 7,000 | 6,000 | 6,000 | 6,500 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| -12,384 | -7,810 | -1,740 | 2,220 | 4,660 | 6,300 | 7,360 | |
| 0.8822 | 0.7782 | 0.6865 | 0.6057 | 0.5343 | 0.4713 | 0.4158 | |
| -10,925 | -6,078 | -1,195 | 1,345 | 2,490 | 2,969 | 3,060 |
Sensitivity: Value per Share ($) = f(WACC, Exit EV/EBITDA)
| 10 | 12 | 14 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 202 | 247.9 | 293.8 | |
| 188.7 | 232 | 275.4 | |
| 173.4 | 214 | 254.5 |
04Scenario Pricing
Relative Valuation Scenario Pricing (EV/Forward ARR Method) Target Price = (Exit ARR × Multiple + Net Cash) / Diluted Shares; Weighted = Σ(Target Price × Probability).
| Scenario | Exit ARR ($M) | EV/ARR | Implied EV ($M) | Target Price ($) | vs Current | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 9,000 | 10 | 90,000 | 342.9 | +49.73% | 30% |
| Base | 8,000 | 8 | 64,000 | 244.8 | +6.89% | 50% |
| Bear | 6,500 | 5.4 | 35,100 | 135.7 | -40.73% | 20% |
| Probability-Weighted Target Price | 252.4 | +10.22% |
Benchmark: Sell-side consensus median target price ~$242 (range $126–287).
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