When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, the party saw a surge in voter enthusiasm. This turned the race against Donald Trump and the Republicans into a virtual tie and continues to energize Democratic voters. Although the campaign landscape has shifted since Biden dropped out in July, the latest Post-ABC-Ipsos poll indicates that the November election will be extremely close, with seven swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—likely deciding the Electoral College winner. Other polls show that Harris has made gains in most, if not all, swing states since Biden's exit, but they also suggest that the results in most states fall within the normal margin of error.
(Source: Washington Post)
(Source: Washington Post)
One sign of how the shift from Biden to Harris has affected voter sentiment is satisfaction with the choice between Harris and Trump. In July, when the race was still Biden vs. Trump, 28% of voters said they were satisfied with the choice. Now, 44% say they are satisfied with the choice between Harris and Trump. The biggest shift came among Democrats. Last month, 20% of Democrats said they were satisfied with the Biden-Trump choice. Now, with Harris as the party's nominee, 60% of Democrats are satisfied with the current matchup. 62% of Harris voters say they "strongly" support her, compared to just 34% for Biden last month. According to the latest FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump needs to flip just one of three "blue states" (Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin) to win in November, provided he holds all the states where he currently leads Harris in the polling average.
(Source: ABC News, 538)
(Source: ABC News, 538)
The economy and inflation remain the top issues in the election, with about half of Americans saying these are "among the most important factors" in their candidate choice. Four in ten say protecting American democracy is among the most important issues, though Democrats are far more likely than Republicans or independents to mention it. Next is the situation at the U.S.-Mexico border, though this issue is more important to Republicans than to Democrats or independents.
Beyond these top issues, there is a range of other topics typical of a campaign year: healthcare, crime and safety, abortion, gun violence, and Supreme Court appointments. Democrats are more likely to rank the latter three issues alongside healthcare as important, while Republicans are more likely to mention crime and safety.
Meanwhile, only 14% of Americans say the war between Israel and Hamas is among the most important issues for their vote this fall. This issue has caused divisions within the Democratic coalition this year, with dissatisfaction over Biden's handling of the war. Harris has taken a stronger stance on calling for a ceasefire than the president, though she largely aligns with him on overall policy. Democrats are preparing for protests by pro-Palestinian demonstrators at the party's convention in Chicago next week.
Similarly, only a small share (13%) say race relations is among the most important issues for their vote.
On 11 issues, Harris is more trusted than Trump on six. The former president is more trusted on the economy, inflation, immigration, and the Israel-Gaza war. Harris's advantages are on race relations, abortion, healthcare, protecting democracy, Supreme Court appointments, and gun violence.
(Source: Washington Post)
She leads by double digits on only two issues: race relations and abortion. Trump leads by 10 points on immigration—though Harris's gap is 4 points smaller than Biden's last month—and now leads by 9 points on the economy and inflation.
Americans continue to view the economy negatively, with 72% saying the current economy is "not so good" or "poor."
