No weekly summary was posted last week, so this edition includes a brief recap of key events from the prior week.
01
—————————
This Week's Market Review
On Friday, all three major indices rallied: the Dow rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 2.03%, and the S&P 500 added 1.02%.
Week-to-date:
- Dow Jones: +1%, closing at 38,239
- Nasdaq: +4.23%, closing at 15,927
- S&P 500: +2%, closing at 5,099
Leading sectors: Lagging sectors:
Notably, mainland Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets also saw a significant rebound.
Northbound capital saw net buying of RMB 22.449 billion on a single day, a record high since the launch of the Stock Connect. Of that, Shanghai Connect saw net buying of RMB 11.323 billion, and Shenzhen Connect saw net buying of RMB 11.126 billion.
This week, the Hang Seng Index rose 8.6%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 12.5%.
02
—————————
Weekly Summary
Economy & Financial Markets
- This week saw the release of US GDP and PCE data, indicating stagflation risks. As discussed in Life Fortune Depends on Kondratiev Waves: Where Are We in the Cycle?, the basic patterns of economic cycles have been explained.
Data showed US GDP grew at an annualized rate of just 1.6%, below the expected 2.4% and the prior quarter's 3.4%. Core PCE remained elevated at 2.8%, pushing back expectations for rate cuts.
-
10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.667%.
-
WTI crude closed at $83.66/barrel; Brent crude at $89.38.
-
Gold closed at $2,337.75.
-
Dollar index closed at 106.09.
-
Bitcoin traded around $63,000.
-
The yen experienced rapid and sharp depreciation.
-
China released 16 measures to support tech enterprises via capital markets.
The Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Development and Reform Commission, and seven other departments jointly issued the "Several Policy Measures on Further Supporting Overseas Institutions to Invest in Domestic Tech Enterprises" (the "Measures"), focusing on the business characteristics of overseas institutions and the development needs of domestic tech firms. The Measures propose 16 steps across four areas: optimizing management services, increasing financing support, strengthening exchanges and cooperation, and improving exit mechanisms.
Geopolitics
- Russia-Ukraine
On April 24, President Biden signed a $95 billion foreign aid package, including over $60 billion for Ukraine. The bill also includes provisions to liquidate seized Russian assets and transfer them to Ukraine.
- Israel-Palestine
(Source: UN Photo)
On April 18, 2024, the UN Security Council failed to pass a resolution recommending that the General Assembly vote on admitting Palestine as a full UN member state, with 12 votes in favor, 1 against, and 2 abstentions (UK and Switzerland). The draft, one of the shortest in Council history, was submitted by Algeria. It read: "The Security Council, having examined the application of the State of Palestine for admission to the United Nations, recommends to the General Assembly that Palestine be admitted to membership in the United Nations."
(Source: UN Photo)
On April 22, an independent panel released a highly anticipated report on the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), making 50 recommendations and stating that Israeli authorities had not provided evidence to support claims that UN staff were linked to terrorist organizations.
Two days after the report, Germany announced it would resume donations to UNRWA. In 2023, Germany provided a total of €197 million to UNRWA, making it the agency's second-largest global donor. The US, UK, and others have not yet resumed donations. The US State Department said this week it is studying and reviewing the Colonna report.
Recently, protests have erupted at major US universities, centered on Columbia University, demanding condemnation of Israeli attacks on civilians, awareness of the suffering in Gaza, an immediate end to the killing, public condemnation of Israeli atrocities, divestment from Israeli partnerships, support for Palestinian liberation and statehood, closure of institutions in Israel, and cessation of cooperation with Israeli universities. The protests have spread nationwide.
(Source: The New York Times)
Participating universities include Columbia, Yale, NYU, University of Minnesota, USC, Emerson, Ohio State, Emory, University of Texas, Princeton, University of Kentucky, and others.
(Source: FOX NEWS)
The slogan "From the River to the Sea, Palestine will be free" refers to the area from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, which has long suffered from Israeli occupation and human rights violations. This article elaborates on the Israel-Palestine issue: The Role of UN Agencies in the Palestinian Humanitarian Crisis.
Israel has established numerous illegal settlements in the West Bank.
From October last year to February this year, more children have been killed in the conflict than in all other conflicts combined over the past four years. "This war is a war on children, a war on their childhood and their future," said Philippe Lazzarini, Commissioner-General of UNRWA.
(Source: UN News)
Below are images of protests at various universities
(Source: The Harvard Crimson)
(Source: Reuters)
(Source: AP)
(Source: Al Jazeera)
(Source: Al Jazeera)
This Friday, Hamas and Fatah may meet in Beijing to discuss resolving internal conflicts.
03
—————————
Key Macro Events for the Coming Week (Eastern Time)
Monday: Tuesday: 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index (ECI) Wednesday: 8:15 AM ADP Employment Data, 10:00 AM ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, 2:00 PM FOMC Meeting, 2:30 PM Powell Press Conference Thursday: 8:30 AM Initial Jobless Claims, US Trade Deficit, US Productivity, 10:00 AM Factory Orders Friday: 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls
(Beijing Time)
Monday: Tuesday: 9:30 AM April Official PMI, 9:45 AM Caixin PMI Wednesday: Thursday: Friday:
Key Focus: FOMC meeting, Nonfarm Payrolls, and China's economic data.
Risk Disclaimer: The views expressed are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Markets are risky; invest with caution.
Follow the public account Mingtao Huang, reply with "research materials 0424" to get the original reference files for this channel.
