Drawing on experience from its Electron rocket, Rocket Lab is preparing to launch its next-generation Neutron rocket, a medium-lift vehicle far larger than Electron. Investing in RKLB requires understanding Neutron's market positioning and tracking its development progress. Below is a successful Electron launch. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/01.webp) ## 1. Neutron's Key Technical Innovations Neutron was designed from a clean sheet to be an optimized medium reusable launch vehicle, with a focus on rapid turnaround and low cost. It features an innovative fairing integrated with the first stage: the "Hungry Hippo" fairing is structurally part of the first stage and is not discarded. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/02.webp) ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/03.webp) The fairing opens like a hippo's mouth in space to release the second stage, then closes, allowing the fairing and first stage to return together for recovery. This simplifies the recovery process and avoids corrosion and maintenance costs from traditional fairings splashing into seawater. Carbon fiber composite structure: Neutron's body is primarily made of carbon fiber composites, reducing structural weight while maintaining strength and stiffness, boosting payload capacity. It will be the largest carbon fiber flight structure ever built. Carbon fiber also has a very low thermal expansion coefficient, better handling extreme temperature changes from cryogenic fuel storage and high-speed atmospheric flight. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/04.webp) Manufacturing uses an automated fiber placement (AFP) machine five stories tall, ensuring high-precision, high-volume production of large, complex curved carbon fiber structures. Archimedes LOX/Methane engine: ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/05.webp) Neutron's first stage uses nine self-developed Archimedes engines burning liquid oxygen and methane (LOX/Methane). Methane combustion produces minimal carbon buildup, greatly reducing cleaning and maintenance costs for reuse—a key enabler for rapid turnaround. While thrust still lags SpaceX's engines, Archimedes has a specific impulse 17-18% better than SpaceX's Merlin 1D. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/06.webp) ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/07.webp) Wide base design without landing legs: ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/08.webp) Neutron's base features large fins (grid fins) for flight stability and aerodynamic advantage, while eliminating traditional landing legs to simplify landing and infrastructure. The wide base also aids deceleration during reentry. ## 2. Launch, Orbit Insertion, and Recovery Process Neutron is designed for rapid reuse, targeting a 24-hour turnaround. Launch site: LC-3 at Wallops Island, Virginia, offers high launch capacity and availability with few operators, enabling high-frequency launches. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/09.webp) The site features a minimalist design with propellant storage and pipelines close to the pad, reducing ground infrastructure and supporting rapid reuse. Second stage and fairing operations: After launch, the first stage and fairing enter space together; the fairing opens, and the second stage flies out to orbit. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/10.webp) The second stage uses a vacuum-optimized Archimedes engine to deliver payloads to low Earth orbit (LEO). First stage recovery: Unlike SpaceX's chopstick catch, RKLB's recovery relies on the rocket's own maneuverability for a Return to Launch Site (RTLS). ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/11.webp) The first stage uses a propulsive landing with retro-thrust and touchdown. For the first flight, management indicated a controlled soft splashdown at sea to gather data with lower risk. A dedicated offshore recovery barge is expected by 2026. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/12.webp) The goal is to recover the fairing and first stage as a single unit. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/13.webp) ## 3. Neutron vs. SpaceX Falcon 9: Parameter Comparison Neutron is cleverly positioned to fill a gap in the 3- to 10-ton payload market, avoiding direct competition with Falcon 9 on heavy lift while offering a more optimized commercial solution.

Feature	Rocket Lab Neutron	SpaceX Falcon 9
Type	Medium reusable rocket	Heavy reusable rocket
Payload to LEO (reusable)	~13,000 kg	~17,500 kg (max reusable) / 3,400 kg (commercial average)
Height	43 m	70 m
Diameter	7 m	3.7 m
Price per launch	$50 million	~$70 million
Propellant	LOX/Methane	LOX/Kerosene (RP-1)
First stage engines	9 Archimedes	9 Merlin 1D
Structure material	Carbon fiber composite	Aluminum-lithium alloy
Fairing recovery	Integrated with first stage, returns as one piece	Separate recovery (sea retrieval/net catch)

*Neutron offers 13 tons of payload at $50 million, precisely filling the gap for customers who need more than small rockets but don't require Falcon 9's full 22.8 tons (expendable) or 17.5 tons (reusable). ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/14.webp) Other rocket models ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/15.webp) Neutron vs. similar rockets ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/16.webp) ## 4. RKLB vs. SpaceX: Business Comparison While both companies have mastered rocket recovery, their business models and strategic focuses differ significantly:

Feature	Rocket Lab (RKLB)	SpaceX
Core strategy	End-to-end space company	Rocket launch + proprietary satellite constellation (Starlink)
Revenue mix	Space Systems ~70% of revenue, high-margin, recurring	Starlink ~2/3 of revenue, cash flow engine
Launch business	Small (Electron) and medium (Neutron), focus on rapid response and customization	Heavy/super-heavy (Falcon/Starship), launch as enabler
Vertical integration	Deep vertical integration via acquisitions (Geost, Mynaric), owns satellite components, platforms, software, optical terminals, and launch	Strong vertical integration, mainly serving Starlink
Constellation focus	Likely B2B specialized secure communications and Earth observation (Flatellite)	B2C global broadband internet (Starlink)
Profit path	High-margin Space Systems and steady Electron launches fund Neutron development, targeting gradual profitability	Starlink's massive cash flow funds Starship/Mars missions

RKLB's strategic advantage lies in its end-to-end capability, offering customers a one-stop service from satellite design, manufacturing, integration, launch, to on-orbit operations ("saving time, hassle, and risk"). This gives it a unique competitive edge with government and defense clients (e.g., US Space Force's VICTUS HAZE program). ## 5. Neutron's Current Progress and Remaining Work As of the source material (primarily Q2 2025), Neutron development is in a critical phase. Completed work: Structural testing: Second stage passed 125% design load structural strength tests; carbon fiber composite structure withstood 1.3 million pounds of tension. Engine testing: Archimedes completed initial hot-fire tests at 102% design thrust, now in intensive testing and production. Launch site: LC-3 at Wallops Island is largely complete, in final commissioning, with an official inauguration. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/17.webp) Hardware: Major components for the first Neutron are en route to the launch site. Subsequent rockets: Second flight vehicle is under construction, with parts already on the floor for a third. Remaining critical steps ("green light program schedule with no error margin"): CEO Peter Beck explicitly stated the current schedule has no margin for error; any slip could push launch to next year. Core remaining tasks include: ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/18.webp) - Engine qualification: Ensure Archimedes meets flight standards. - Stage 1 qualification: Validate first stage structure, systems, and unique "hippo mouth" mechanism. - Flight mechanism test program: Test separation systems, fairing actuation, control surfaces, and actuators. - Static fire tests: Test first and second stages. - Vehicle integration: Final assembly of all stages and systems. - Wet dress rehearsal (WDR): Simulate launch sequence including fueling and countdown. - Regulatory approval: Obtain final launch permit. ![](/content-images/20251010-rklb-zhong-zi-huo-jian-yu-spacex-lie-ying-9-hao-de-ji-shu-lu/19.webp) ## 6. Neutron Launch Timeline and Success Probability Based on engineering progress and management risk assessment, here are predictions: Launch timeline: Official target: first flight by end of 2025. Analyst view: Given the need for perfect coordination and ongoing critical tests, I estimate a 50-65% probability of first flight and orbit insertion by end of 2025. Delay risk: Slightly over 50% chance of slipping to early 2026. Senior management has stated they will not launch an imperfect rocket just to meet a date. Delays are standard in rocketry and acceptable. Success probability: First flight orbit insertion: 50-65%. Historically, new rockets have a ~45% failure rate on first flight, implying ~55% success. First stage recovery success: If requiring recovery (even soft splashdown), probability drops to 35-50%. RKLB management sets a strict success criterion: only reaching orbit counts as success, not just avoiding a pad explosion. This candid expectation management signals commitment to quality and provides investors a realistic risk assessment. If Neutron succeeds, Rocket Lab will have end-to-end capability across small and medium lift, cementing its key position in global commercial space. Risk disclosure: The views in this article are for reference only and do not represent investment advice. Markets involve risk; invest with caution.