沃什的杰克逊霍尔讲话符合预期，整体基调中性偏鹰：偏鹰的是政策论证，中性的是他没有承诺9月或预设利率路径。FedWatch显示，9月加息25bp概率为55.5%，维持不变仍有44.5%；到2027年1月，概率峰值才移动到较当前累计加息50bp的区间。市场计入的是未来数月的紧缩风险，不是沃什对某次会议的承诺。
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