This is a downloadable financial model for NVIDIA (NVDA), covering core assumptions, financial forecasts, valuation, and scenario pricing. Below is a snapshot of the model output; the full editable version (with live formulas, allowing you to tweak assumptions for sensitivity analysis) is available for download here:
⬇ Download NVDA Financial Model (.xlsx)
The multiples, growth rates, WACC, and target prices in this table are modeled/inferred metrics; the company does not disclose these individually. This model is intended as an analytical framework and cross-check, not investment advice.
01Assumptions
NVIDIA (NVDA) — Model Assumptions (blue = adjustable inputs; yellow = key assumptions) Data as of Q1 FY2027 (2026-04-26) / Price as of 2026-06-26; units $M, shares M, price $/share, EPS $/share Valuation Basis
Scenario Assumptions (EPS × P/E)
| Scenario | Non-GAAP EPS($) | P/E | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull (FY28E) | 11.5 | 26 | 0.35 |
| Base (FY28E) | 10.5 | 22 | 0.45 |
| Bear (FY27E) | 8.3 | 18 | 0.2 |
Note: EPS, P/E, and probabilities are modeled/inferred; not disclosed by the company.
02Annual Model
Annual P&L Model (modeled metrics; FY26A = actual, FY27 partially based on guidance) Blue = input; black = formula. NVDA fiscal year ends in January.
| FY26A | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 245,000 | 380,000 | 470,000 | 540,000 | 590,000 | |
| 0.551 | 0.2368 | 0.1489 | 0.09259 | ||
| 0.711 | 0.749 | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.73 | |
| 0.52 | 0.565 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.55 | |
| 127,400 | 214,700 | 267,900 | 302,400 | 324,500 | |
| 24,600 | 24,400 | 24,200 | 24,000 | 23,800 | |
| 5.179 | 8.799 | 11.07 | 12.6 | 13.63 |
03DCF
DCF (FCF Method · Terminal Value via Exit FCF Multiple · Modeled Metrics) NVDA generates extremely strong free cash flow (~$200B annualized). Blue = input; black = formula. WACC Breakdown
| FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | FY30E | FY31E | FY32E | FY33E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 190,000 | 228,000 | 266,000 | 304,000 | 338,000 | 365,000 | 387,000 | |
| 0.9005 | 0.8109 | 0.7302 | 0.6575 | 0.5921 | 0.5332 | 0.4801 | |
| 171,094 | 184,883 | 194,234 | 199,894 | 200,135 | 194,617 | 185,815 |
Sensitivity: Per-Share Value ($) = f(WACC, Exit FCF Multiple)
| 16 | 19 | 22 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189.9 | 214.4 | 238.8 | |
| 179.9 | 202.8 | 225.7 | |
| 170.5 | 192 | 213.6 |
04Scenario Pricing
Scenario Pricing (EPS × P/E Method) Target Price = Non-GAAP EPS × P/E; Weighted = Σ(Target Price × Probability).
| Scenario | EPS($) | P/E | Target Price($) | vs Current Price | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 11.5 | 26 | 299 | 0.553 | 0.35 |
| Base | 10.5 | 22 | 231 | 0.1998 | 0.45 |
| Bear | 8.3 | 18 | 149.4 | -0.224 | 0.2 |
| Probability-Weighted Target Price | 238.5 | 0.2387 |
Reference: NVDA sell-side is overwhelmingly Buy-rated; forward P/E is currently ~22x.
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