Earlier I gave a brief earnings overview of NBIS: AI Infrastructure Leader and Diversified Business to introduce the company.
(Source: Yahoo Finance) First, from NBIS's SEC filing, Microsoft and Nebius have entered into a multi-year agreement worth up to $19.4 billion. According to the filing, Microsoft will purchase $17.4 billion in AI cloud services, with an option to add up to $2 billion more. The agreement runs through 2031, and Microsoft can also obtain additional services and computing power. Notably, NBIS's market cap at Monday's close was $15.3 billion — this deal is larger than NBIS's current market cap.
(Source: SEC Filing Form 6-K)
(Source: Nebius, Google Translate) From Nebius's website, founder Arkady said NBIS is doing "exceptionally well" and expects more to come. This is NBIS's first major contract. If more orders follow, NBIS will need to raise CapEx to provide more compute. Beyond the deal's prepayments, the company will also use a combination of cash flow from the deal and debt issuance to fund future compute buildout. NBIS's debt is currently very healthy, so share issuance or other fundraising to expand the business is foreseeable.
(Source: Money or Life US Stock Channel Summary) Let's calculate the revenue impact. The filing mentions data centers will be delivered in 2025 and 2026. Assuming the first two years are for construction and ramp-up, with stable service from year three onward: 10% of the $18.4B in 2026, 15% in 2027, and 25% each subsequent year. In 2026, NBIS could generate $1.84B from this contract alone. Adding other business revenue (estimated from 2025 ARR growth), total 2026 revenue would be $3.14B, a ~500% increase over 2025 — far above 2025's 200% growth.
For investors who haven't bought in yet, chasing the rally is not advisable. Wait for the stock to stabilize and then assess entry. High-growth companies like NBIS can be volatile, and risks are significant.
Risk Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets are risky; invest with caution.
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