With less than a week to the US election, the race is razor-thin. Both candidates are neck-and-neck in key swing states, making the outcome impossible to call until the results are in.
Polling
Current early voting results suggest the GOP may secure 219 solid electoral votes, while Harris has 226—a slim lead of just 7 votes.
In key swing states, Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while Harris leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
In Pennsylvania, the most critical swing state with 19 electoral votes, Trump leads Harris by just 0.3%.
If we add the current solid votes to the leading swing state votes, the final possible outcome looks like this:
According to Polymarket, a popular betting site, Trump may ultimately win 312 electoral votes.
Current Campaign Hotspots
- After a super hurricane devastated the US Southeast, the federal government's poor disaster response and local government's inaction have signaled to voters in the region the incompetence of the Biden-Harris administration. There were even reports of a helicopter's rotor blades blowing away tents set up by victims—a so-called "malicious disaster relief" incident that was ultimately swept under the rug.
- According to BBC: Biden tried to clarify his remarks after he appeared to call Donald Trump's supporters "garbage," sparking conservative backlash. Biden was responding to a comedian who called Puerto Rico a "floating island of garbage" at a Trump rally on Sunday. Biden initially said Tuesday: "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters," drawing Republican condemnation. The White House later released a transcript with an apostrophe, saying the president was referring to the Trump rally comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's words, not the tens of millions of Trump supporters. "The only garbage I see floating out there is [Trump's] supporters... his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable and un-American," the transcript read. Biden later spoke on a video call with nonprofit Voto Latino, writing on X: "Earlier today I referred to the hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico from Trump's supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally as garbage—which is the only word I can think of to describe it. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable. That's what I meant. The comments at that rally don't reflect who we are as a nation." White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that Biden "does not view Trump supporters or anyone who supports Trump as garbage." But Trump supporters seized on the remarks, comparing them to Hillary Clinton's controversial 2016 comment that half of Trump's supporters were a "basket of deplorables." Trump opened his Wisconsin rally by playing a video of himself driving a garbage truck, and wore a reflective sanitation worker vest throughout the event.
Trump said at the rally: "You are not garbage, you're Americans."
More notably, Harris said in a speech: "Even if you don't vote for me, I will be a president for all Americans, and I'm proud to serve with Biden." Hours later, Biden called Trump supporters "garbage," making it impossible for Harris to distance herself from Biden before the election, and she is sure to be affected by the fallout.
Biden's earlier image wearing a MAGA hat has resurfaced, causing a major blunder at a critical moment in the election, boosting the GOP's prospects.
- After decades of supporting Democratic candidates, the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times declined to endorse a candidate this election. Now USA Today has also chosen not to endorse Harris.
Overall, while Trump's campaign appears stronger, it's still impossible to say he will definitely win. Seven swing states, five of which have Democratic governors, and the complexity of the US voting system—each state and even county has different voting methods—could produce results that diverge from polls. The US election will undoubtedly bring huge uncertainty to capital markets. This channel will continue to track developments. Stay tuned.
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