This article focuses on the second-place battle between Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis (now withdrawn), and whether Trump will maintain his huge lead among moderate and independent voters. Before we start, here's a quick intro to each candidate, followed by their respective buffs and debuffs.
Trump (The Don) keywords: biological male, MAGA, former US president—need I say more?
Ron DeSantis keywords: biological male, Florida governor, far-right Republican, lawyer and veteran, restricted classroom discussions on sex and gender for young students, battled Disney and scrapped its corporate campus plan in Florida.
Nikki Haley keywords: biological female, former US ambassador to the UN, Indian-American, first female governor of South Carolina and third non-white governor of a southern state, advocates mental competency tests for politicians over 75.
Background: Trump beats Nikki Haley by 11 points in New Hampshire
(Source: The New York Times)
Detailed voting breakdown by region
(Source: The New York Times)
(Source: The New York Times)
(Source: The New York Times)
(Source: The New York Times)
(Source: The New York Times)
Clearly, after DeSantis dropped out, Trump did a 180 on him, calling him a "very good person" and "very talented." He even retired the nickname "DeSantimonious" (phony). Trump said the nickname is "officially retired."
So, DeSantis is out—why is she still hanging on?
I see two main reasons:
- Political reputation
Haley will head to South Carolina for campaign events. She pins her hopes on her home state, which votes on February 24, and then "Super Tuesday" in March, when more than a dozen states hold primaries. Haley served two terms as South Carolina governor, but polls show Trump leading there by a wide margin. Despite Trump's two consecutive wins, exit polls reveal potential weaknesses for the general election. Trump faces a slew of criminal charges; exit polls show about 44% of Republican primary voters said Trump would be unfit for president if convicted.
- If Trump loses his criminal cases, Haley could become the most prominent anti-Trump flag-bearer and run again in 2028.
If Trump loses, Haley—by staying in to the end—becomes the sole figure who "fought Trump" until the last moment. Why 2028? The worst-case scenario for the GOP: Trump wins the nomination, represents the party in the 2024 general election, then gets convicted—taking the entire Republican ticket down with him. The party would be unable to contest 2024, opening the door for Haley in 2028.
(For more on Trump's indictments, see the next article.)
On investment analysis, market insight, and asset allocation — not chasing short-term noise, but understanding what truly drives long-term returns.
